Public Forum Nocember Primer

Resolved: The United States should substantially reduce its military support of Taiwan

by Stormee Massey on 10/25/2024

As we transition away from the Septober Southern Border discussion, Nocember points us toward an equally complex issue. The geopolitical environment surrounding Taiwan has long been divisive and continues to complicate relations between the US, China, and a laundry list of other nations around the world. As Taiwan remains the world’s leading hub for semiconductors, the environment surrounding Taiwan’s importance to the US and China becomes increasingly toxic. 

Let’s take a deeper look at the topic on each side.

PRO

The main US military support for Taiwan ranges from arms and missile sales, to supplying surface ships, aircraft carriers and tanks. As the US does not have an official treaty obligation to defend Taiwan in the status quo, the US remains ambiguous in its relations with the island nation. The US has both proclaimed support for the ‘One China Policy’, while also providing military support and inviting Taiwan to international organizations that are typically reserved for “sovereign” states. This contradictory approach makes the Pro side of the topic straightforward in terms of policy, but complicated in terms of the geopolitical consequences.

The increasing tension over Taiwan, as Pro would argue, is exacerbated by the US’s vague and contradictory policymaking. As the US continues to provide Taiwan with hundreds of millions in military aid, China has continued to escalate their military operations in the waters surrounding Taiwan. It is highly probable that the main focus of most Pro cases will be on decreasing tension with China. Any advantages of the Pro would most likely stem from a reduction in tension or an increase in relations, specifically with China or more broadly applied to other countries.

CON

The Con side of the topic is naturally set to focus on the danger that reduced US military support would pose for Taiwan. Outside of the historical precedent for the US to support Taiwan, there are a variety of reasons the US provides support in the status quo ranging from economic, to political, to security reasons. The impacts will likely emphasize the need to counter China’s geopolitical dominance over Taiwan and the globe.

The main questions in the topic are: Will China actually invade Taiwan? And if they did, would Taiwan even be able to defend itself? Regardless of whether or not the US decreased its military support, the core of the topic will depend upon proving the trajectory of China’s intentions and controlling the narrative regarding Taiwan’s ability to survive a Chinese take-over in the first place.